Penn State @ Washington

Sat, Nov 7 · Husky Stadium

The line has it Washington 24, Penn State 21.Washington −2.5, total 44.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Penn State at Washington: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Penn State8 games	Washington8 games
	+2.9	−1.6
	−6.1	−2.8
	+22	−14
	−68	−11
	+0.5	−0.1
	+12.2	+7.1
	−4.4%	−7.7%
	−1.0	−0.2
	−7.7	+3.9
	+0.4	+0.6
	−0.3	−0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Washington

Washington has covered 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →
Washington is 6.0 points a game under the closing line this season, 123rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Penn State

Penn State is 2.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 97th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Penn State leads the series 4–0 since 1921. Penn State has won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Washington has beaten 8 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →
Washington is 0–5 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without Emmanuel Karnley, Washington’s third-down conversion rate are 24.8% under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Xe'ree Alexander, Washington’s third-down conversion rate are 19.0% over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Elijah Brown, Washington’s third-down conversion rate are 15.6% under expected in 4 games. A −25.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected without Elijah Brown vs with Elijah Brown is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were without Elijah Brown and it comes up 10 times in 100.thinwithout him →
Penn State has beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →
Since Chase Sowell’s last game, Penn State’s carries are 17.3 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Cam Wallace, Penn State’s carries are 12.7 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
On the road, Penn State’s carries are 7.2 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Nov 9, 2024	at Penn State	Penn State 35, Washington 6
Dec 30, 2017	neutral	Penn State 35, Washington 28
Dec 26, 1983	neutral	Penn State 13, Washington 10
Dec 3, 1921	at Washington	Penn State 21, Washington 7

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.