UCF @ 
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State 42, UCF 28Oklahoma State was favored by 10, and Oklahoma State covered.
| a game | UCF1 game | Oklahoma State1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | +2.1 | +14.3 |
| Points allowed | +6.0 | +3.2 |
| Total offense, yards | −22 | +9 |
| Total defense, yards | −79 | +37 |
| Touchdowns | +0.7 | +0.8 |
| Passer rating | +10.4 | +43.4 |
| Third downs | +5.0% | +2.7% |
| Sacks | −0.4 | −1.5 |
| Penalty yards | −25.3 | −23.5 |
| Turnovers forced | −0.2 | +0.8 |
| Turnovers lost | +0.7 | −0.3 |
Who put up numbers
Oklahoma State
- Passing yardsDrew Mestemaker304 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsDrew Mestemaker2 passing touchdowns
- Rushing yardsCaleb Hawkins83 rushing yards
UCF
Analysis
Oklahoma State
- Oklahoma State had covered 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
- Oklahoma State was 6.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 25th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+4.0 against the line this game.
UCF
- UCF had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
- UCF was 6.8 points a game over the closing line this season, 23rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →−4.0 against the line this game.
The series
- UCF leads the series 2–1 since 2023.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Oklahoma State had covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- Oklahoma State had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- In a conference game, Oklahoma State’s pass attempts were 11.7 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 8.9 under expected.
- At home, Oklahoma State’s total yards were 153.8 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 75.6 under expected.
- Against an unranked opponent, Oklahoma State’s points were 17.8 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.6 over expected.
- On the road, UCF’s carries were 10.9 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 7.0 over expected.
- Against a ranked opponent, UCF’s pass attempts were 9.4 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 13.8 over expected.
- In a conference game, UCF’s rushing yards were 35.4 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 38.5 under expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | at Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State 42, UCF 28 |
| Nov 22, 2025 | at UCF | UCF 17, Oklahoma State 14 |
| Nov 11, 2023 | at UCF | UCF 45, Oklahoma State 3 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 9, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.