Syracuse @ 
Virginia
Virginia 28, Syracuse 25Virginia was favored by 14, and Syracuse covered.
| a game | Syracuse1 game | Virginia1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | +1.9 | −1.9 |
| Points allowed | +1.7 | −1.2 |
| Total offense, yards | +79 | −110 |
| Total defense, yards | −84 | +40 |
| Touchdowns | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| Passer rating | +4.7 | −10.5 |
| Third downs | −4.8% | −10.9% |
| Sacks | −1.9 | −1.3 |
| Penalty yards | +9.4 | +5.7 |
| Turnovers forced | −1.2 | −1.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −1.2 | −1.2 |
Who put up numbers
Virginia
- Passing yardsBeau Pribula119 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsBeau Pribula1 passing touchdown
- Rushing yardsJekail Middlebrook95 rushing yards
Syracuse
Analysis
Virginia
- Virginia had covered 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- Virginia had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
- Virginia had won 4 straight as the underdog.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
- Virginia was 0.7 points a game under the closing line this season, 76th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−11.0 against the line this game.
Syracuse
- Syracuse was 3.0 points a game over the closing line this season, 48th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+11.0 against the line this game.
The series
- Virginia leads the series 4–3 since 1975. Virginia has won 3 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Virginia was 3–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
- At home, Virginia’s carries were 12.9 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.5 under expected.
- In a conference game, Virginia’s carries were 12.2 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.5 under expected.
- At night, Virginia’s pass attempts were 9.6 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 11.7 under expected.
- Syracuse had lost 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
- Syracuse had failed to cover 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- At night, Syracuse’s passing yards were 87.2 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 65.8 over expected.
- In a conference game, Syracuse’s points were 14.7 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.9 over expected.
- On the road, Syracuse’s carries were 5.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 10.3 over expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | at Virginia | Virginia 28, Syracuse 25 |
| Sep 23, 2022 | at Syracuse | Syracuse 22, Virginia 20 |
| Oct 17, 2015 | at Virginia | Virginia 44, Syracuse 38 |
| Sep 17, 2005 | at Syracuse | Virginia 27, Syracuse 24 |
| Sep 25, 2004 | at Virginia | Virginia 31, Syracuse 10 |
| Oct 29, 1977 | at Syracuse | Syracuse 6, Virginia 3 |
| Nov 15, 1975 | at Virginia | Syracuse 37, Virginia 0 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 9, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.