Rice @ East Carolina

Sat, Oct 10, 2026

East Carolina 28, Rice 12East Carolina was favored by 10, and East Carolina covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

East Carolina was 4.6 points a game under the closing line this season, 105th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+6.0 against the line this game.

Rice had lost 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
Rice was 1.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 58th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−6.0 against the line this game.

The series is tied 3–3 since 2005. East Carolina has won 3 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

East Carolina had beaten 8 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
East Carolina had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
East Carolina had won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Against an unranked opponent, East Carolina’s third-down conversion rate were 13.1% under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 7.3% under expected.
At home, East Carolina’s pass attempts were 4.5 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.3 over expected.
Rice was 2–2 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
In a conference game, Rice’s points allowed were 23.1 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.1 under expected.
On the road, Rice’s penalty yards were 22.7 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 13.0 under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 9, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.