Rice @ North Texas

Sat, Nov 7 · DATCU Stadium

The line has it North Texas 41, Rice 24.North Texas −16.5, total 64.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Rice at North Texas: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Rice8 games	North Texas8 games
	−6.2	+13.4
	+8.1	+7.4
	−46	+135
	+33	+35
	−0.4	+1.6
	−12.7	+33.4
	−14.7%	+8.7%
	−0.5	0.0
	−7.8	+15.7
	−0.7	+0.1
	+0.1	+0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

North Texas

North Texas has won 7 straight at home.streakthe runs →
North Texas has beaten 5 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →
North Texas has won 5 straight.streakthe runs →
North Texas is 6.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 14th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Rice

Rice has lost 7 straight.streakthe runs →
Rice is 1.0 points a game under the closing line this season, 84th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

North Texas leads the series 9–5 since 1988. North Texas has won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

North Texas has covered 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
North Texas is 3–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without Brendon Haygood, North Texas’ points allowed are 14.4 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
At home, North Texas’ points allowed are 11.7 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
In a conference game, North Texas’ points are 10.0 over expected in 4 games. A +11.4 difference in points over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 14 times in 100.thinthe split →
Rice is 3–4 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Since Jacurri Brown’s last game, Rice’s rushing yards are 291.5 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
In a conference game, Rice’s carries are 7.8 over expected in 4 games. A +7.9 difference in carries over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 8 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Nov 22, 2025	at Rice	North Texas 56, Rice 24
Nov 26, 2022	at North Texas	North Texas 21, Rice 17
Oct 30, 2021	at Rice	North Texas 30, Rice 24
Nov 21, 2020	at North Texas	North Texas 27, Rice 17
Nov 23, 2019	at Rice	Rice 20, North Texas 14
Oct 27, 2018	at North Texas	North Texas 41, Rice 17
Nov 25, 2017	at Rice	North Texas 30, Rice 14
Sep 24, 2016	at Rice	North Texas 42, Rice 35
Sep 19, 2015	at North Texas	Rice 38, North Texas 24
Oct 25, 2014	at Rice	Rice 41, North Texas 21

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.