North Carolina @ Pittsburgh

Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · Unranked at No. 25

North Carolina 21, Pittsburgh 17Pittsburgh was favored by 3.5, and North Carolina covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Pittsburgh had beaten 5 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Pittsburgh had won 5 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Pittsburgh had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Pittsburgh had covered 5 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Pittsburgh had won 5 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Pittsburgh was 7.7 points a game over the closing line this season, 19th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−7.5 against the line this game.

North Carolina was 3.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 44th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+7.5 against the line this game.

Pittsburgh was 3–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
In a conference game, Pittsburgh’s passing yards were 90.6 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.6 over expected.
At home, Pittsburgh’s points allowed were 10.8 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.6 under expected.
On the road, North Carolina’s rushing yards were 89.1 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 94.5 under expected.
Against a ranked opponent, North Carolina’s carries were 8.0 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 10.0 under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 9, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.