Putting Up Numbers· college football

Minnesota @ Purdue

Sat, Oct 10, 2026

Purdue 41, Minnesota 13Minnesota was favored by 3, and Purdue covered.

Minnesota at Purdue: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameMinnesota1 gamePurdue1 game
Points−18.3+16.9
Points allowed+13.3−9.9
Total offense, yards−141+112
Total defense, yards+88−35
Touchdowns−2.8+2.2
Passer rating−28.8−5.5
Third downs−12.2%+6.0%
Sacks−2.2−2.0
Penalty yards+21.5−16.4
Turnovers forced−1.2+0.8
Turnovers lost+0.8−1.4

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Purdue

Minnesota

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Purdue

  • Purdue was 1.1 points a game under the closing line this season, 79th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+31.0 against the line this game.

Minnesota

  • Minnesota was 4.8 points a game over the closing line this season, 37th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−31.0 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • Purdue had lost 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Purdue was 2–2 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Covered.
  • In a conference game, Purdue’s passing yards were 111.1 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 95.4 under expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Purdue’s passing yards were 102.6 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 95.4 under expected.
  • At home, Purdue’s pass attempts were 6.3 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.3 under expected.
  • Minnesota had covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Minnesota had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Minnesota had beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • In a conference game, Minnesota’s carries were 7.6 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 21.9 under expected.
  • On the road, Minnesota’s points were 9.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 15.4 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 10, 2026at PurduePurdue 41, Minnesota 13
Oct 11, 2025at MinnesotaMinnesota 27, Purdue 20
Nov 11, 2023at PurduePurdue 49, Minnesota 30
Oct 1, 2022at MinnesotaPurdue 20, Minnesota 10
Oct 2, 2021at PurdueMinnesota 20, Purdue 13
Nov 20, 2020at MinnesotaMinnesota 34, Purdue 31
Sep 28, 2019at PurdueMinnesota 38, Purdue 31
Nov 10, 2018at MinnesotaMinnesota 41, Purdue 10
Oct 7, 2017at PurduePurdue 31, Minnesota 17
Nov 5, 2016at MinnesotaMinnesota 44, Purdue 31

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 9, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.