Maryland @ Ohio State

Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · Unranked at No. 5

Ohio State 45, Maryland 16Ohio State was favored by 31, and Maryland covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Ohio State had beaten 12 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 13.
Ohio State had won 11 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 12.
Ohio State was 1.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 58th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−2.0 against the line this game.

Maryland’s rushing yards were 65.5 lower at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 136th of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 8.2 under expected.
Maryland was 7.2 points a game under the closing line this season, 119th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+2.0 against the line this game.

Ohio State leads the series 10–0 since 2014. Ohio State has won the last 10.seriesevery meeting →

Ohio State had covered 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Ohio State had covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
Ohio State had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Ohio State was 3–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
In a conference game, Ohio State’s third-down conversion rate were 20.6% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.5% under expected.
At home, Ohio State’s points were 12.8 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.7 over expected.
Maryland had lost 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
In a conference game, Maryland’s third-down conversion rate were 26.3% under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 11.3% under expected.
On the road, Maryland’s total yards were 114.8 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 151.7 under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 9, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.