Boise State @ 
Fresno State
Boise State 38, Fresno State 31Boise State was favored by 9, and Fresno State covered.
| a game | Boise State1 game | Fresno State1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | +17.8 | +3.5 |
| Points allowed | +2.8 | +9.6 |
| Total offense, yards | +139 | −44 |
| Total defense, yards | −25 | +120 |
| Touchdowns | +1.7 | +1.0 |
| Passer rating | +11.8 | +11.5 |
| Third downs | +0.3% | +14.0% |
| Sacks | 0.0 | −1.5 |
| Penalty yards | +30.7 | −39.9 |
| Turnovers forced | −1.2 | −1.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −1.4 | −1.2 |
Who put up numbers
Fresno State
- Passing yardsJayden Mandal218 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsJayden Mandal2 passing touchdowns
- Rushing yardsBryson Donelson31 rushing yards
Boise State
Analysis
Fresno State
- Fresno State had covered 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
- Fresno State had won 4 straight by 10 or more.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- Fresno State had won 4 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- Fresno State had beaten 6 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
- Fresno State was 9.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 12th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+2.0 against the line this game.
Boise State
- Boise State had won 4 straight by 10 or more.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- Boise State had beaten 4 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
- Boise State had won 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
- Boise State had won 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
- Boise State was 5.7 points a game over the closing line this season, 34th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−2.0 against the line this game.
The series
- Boise State leads the series 18–10 since 1977.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Fresno State had won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- Against a ranked opponent, Fresno State’s total yards were 227.9 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.8 over expected.
- At home, Fresno State’s rushing yards were 110.4 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 55.5 under expected.
- In a conference game, Fresno State’s points allowed were 16.9 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 8.2 over expected.
- Boise State was 2–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
- In a conference game, Boise State’s pass attempts were 11.8 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.7 over expected.
- Against an unranked opponent, Boise State’s third-down conversion rate were 16.3% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.3% under expected.
- On the road, Boise State’s total yards were 80.0 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 89.9 over expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | at Fresno State | Boise State 38, Fresno State 31 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | at Boise State | Fresno State 30, Boise State 7 |
| Nov 4, 2023 | at Fresno State | Fresno State 37, Boise State 30 |
| Dec 3, 2022 | at Boise State | Fresno State 28, Boise State 16 |
| Oct 8, 2022 | at Boise State | Boise State 40, Fresno State 20 |
| Nov 6, 2021 | at Fresno State | Boise State 40, Fresno State 14 |
| Dec 1, 2018 | at Boise State | Fresno State 19, Boise State 16 |
| Nov 9, 2018 | at Boise State | Boise State 24, Fresno State 17 |
| Dec 2, 2017 | at Boise State | Boise State 17, Fresno State 14 |
| Nov 25, 2017 | at Fresno State | Fresno State 28, Boise State 17 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 9, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.