Fresno State @ Utah State

Sat, Nov 7 · Maverik Stadium

The line has it Fresno State 23, Utah State 20.Fresno State −2.5, total 42.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Fresno State at Utah State: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Fresno State8 games	Utah State8 games
	−1.9	−11.7
	−2.6	−7.9
	−53	−80
	+38	−54
	−0.3	−1.3
	−7.7	−11.5
	−2.6%	−2.4%
	+0.7	−0.1
	−27.1	+7.4
	+0.6	+0.1
	−0.5	−0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Utah State

Utah State is 2.2 points a game over the closing line this season, 45th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Fresno State

Fresno State has covered 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →
Fresno State is 7.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 10th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Fresno State leads the series 19–14–1 since 1952.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Utah State has won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
Utah State has covered 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
Utah State has lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Utah State is 3–1 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Since Eli Wood’s last game, Utah State’s third-down conversion rate are 20.9% over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Grady Brosterhous, Utah State’s third-down conversion rate are 20.9% over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
At home, Utah State’s penalty yards are 27.5 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
Fresno State has covered 8 of its last 10.countits form →
Fresno State has beaten 8 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →
Fresno State has won 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Fresno State is 3–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without Rayshon Luke, Fresno State’s carries are 12.0 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
On the road, Fresno State’s total yards are 73.6 under expected in 4 games. A −139.6 difference in total yards over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 15 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Nov 22, 2025	at Fresno State	Utah State 28, Fresno State 17
Oct 13, 2023	at Utah State	Fresno State 37, Utah State 32
Nov 14, 2020	at Utah State	Fresno State 35, Utah State 16
Nov 9, 2019	at Fresno State	Utah State 37, Fresno State 35
Oct 22, 2016	at Utah State	Utah State 38, Fresno State 20
Oct 10, 2015	at Fresno State	Utah State 56, Fresno State 14
Dec 7, 2013	neutral	Fresno State 24, Utah State 17
Oct 15, 2011	at Fresno State	Fresno State 31, Utah State 21
Sep 18, 2010	at Utah State	Fresno State 41, Utah State 24
Oct 31, 2009	at Fresno State	Fresno State 31, Utah State 27

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.