Ball State @ 
Northwestern
Northwestern 45, Ball State 14Northwestern was favored by 34.5, and Ball State covered.
| a game | Ball State1 game | Northwestern1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | −6.7 | +9.8 |
| Points allowed | +14.7 | −6.5 |
| Total offense, yards | +1 | −11 |
| Total defense, yards | +15 | +39 |
| Touchdowns | −0.4 | +0.5 |
| Passer rating | −10.5 | +54.9 |
| Third downs | −8.8% | +0.3% |
| Sacks | −1.2 | +0.2 |
| Penalty yards | +65.4 | −5.6 |
| Turnovers forced | −1.3 | −0.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −0.3 | −1.1 |
Who put up numbers
Northwestern
- Passing yardsAidan Chiles272 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsAidan Chiles3 passing touchdowns
- Rushing yardsCaleb Komolafe44 rushing yards
Ball State
Analysis
Northwestern
- Northwestern’s rushing yards were 129.6 higher at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 1st of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 78.7 under expected.
- Northwestern had covered 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- Northwestern had covered 5 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- Northwestern had won 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 7.
- Northwestern had beaten 4 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
- Northwestern was 17.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 3rd of 136, and 12.1 better at home than away over its last 25, 8th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−3.5 against the line this game.
Ball State
- Ball State was 3.6 points a game under the closing line this season, 98th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+3.5 against the line this game.
The series
- Northwestern leads the series 2–0 since 2015. Northwestern has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- At home, Northwestern’s carries were 15.1 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 11.9 under expected.
- Ball State had lost 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
- Ball State was 1–3 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Covered.
- On the road, Ball State’s total yards were 103.2 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 60.6 over expected.
- Against an unranked opponent, Ball State’s pass attempts were 5.3 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 16.6 over expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | at Northwestern | Northwestern 45, Ball State 14 |
| Sep 26, 2015 | at Northwestern | Northwestern 24, Ball State 19 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 9, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.