Putting Up Numbers· college football

Florida State @ Louisville

Fri, Oct 9, 2026

Louisville 44, Florida State 20Louisville was favored by 4, and Louisville covered.

Florida State at Louisville: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameFlorida State1 gameLouisville1 game
Points−6.6+13.7
Points allowed+8.7−6.1
Total offense, yards−45+114
Total defense, yards+83−18
Touchdowns−0.1+2.4
Passer rating−24.6+7.1
Third downs+6.3%+3.7%
Sacks−1.0+1.4
Penalty yards−35.8−21.8
Turnovers forced−1.2−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.4−1.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Louisville

Florida State

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Louisville

  • Louisville was 0.8 points a game under the closing line this season, 78th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+20.0 against the line this game.

Florida State

  • Florida State was 0.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 63rd of 136, and 15.3 worse away than at home over its last 25, 133rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →−20.0 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • Louisville was 2–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
  • At home, Louisville’s penalty yards were 45.1 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 27.2 under expected.
  • At night, Louisville’s points were 12.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 8.9 over expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Louisville’s rushing yards were 42.2 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 213.5 over expected.
  • On the road, Florida State’s passing yards were 154.4 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 56.5 under expected.
  • In a conference game, Florida State’s carries were 9.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.2 under expected.
  • At night, Florida State’s passing yards were 87.1 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 56.5 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 9, 2026at LouisvilleLouisville 44, Florida State 20
Dec 2, 2023neutralFlorida State 16, Louisville 6
Sep 16, 2022at LouisvilleFlorida State 35, Louisville 31
Sep 25, 2021at Florida StateLouisville 31, Florida State 23
Oct 24, 2020at LouisvilleLouisville 48, Florida State 16
Sep 21, 2019at Florida StateFlorida State 35, Louisville 24
Sep 29, 2018at LouisvilleFlorida State 28, Louisville 24
Oct 21, 2017at Florida StateLouisville 31, Florida State 28
Sep 17, 2016at LouisvilleLouisville 63, Florida State 20
Oct 17, 2015at Florida StateFlorida State 41, Louisville 21

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 8, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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