Florida State @ Boston College

Sat, Nov 7 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)

The line has it Florida State 29, Boston College 22.Florida State −6.5, total 51, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Florida State at Boston College: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Florida State8 games	Boston College8 games
	+5.3	−4.7
	+3.3	−0.5
	+50	−24
	+61	−53
	+1.2	−0.4
	+6.8	−18.7
	+0.3%	−4.1%
	+0.7	−0.3
	−12.3	+15.8
	−0.4	+0.3
	+0.6	+0.3

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Boston College

Boston College is 2.1 points a game under the closing line this season, 93rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Florida State

Florida State is 2.6 points a game under the closing line this season, 98th of 136, and 12.2 worse away than at home over its last 25, 129th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Florida State leads the series 15–6 since 1957. Florida State has won 3 straight at Boston College.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Boston College has covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Boston College is 4–2 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Since Evan Dickens’ last game, Boston College’s penalty yards are 63.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Bo MacCormack III, Boston College’s carries are 10.0 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Nolan Ray, Boston College’s third-down conversion rate are 17.9% under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Florida State has lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Since Ousmane Kromah’s last game, Florida State’s third-down conversion rate are 30.5% under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
On the road, Florida State’s penalty yards are 23.0 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
In a conference game, Florida State’s third-down conversion rate are 8.2% under expected in 5 games. A −26.5% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 9 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Sep 2, 2024	at Florida State	Boston College 28, Florida State 13
Sep 16, 2023	at Boston College	Florida State 31, Boston College 29
Sep 24, 2022	at Florida State	Florida State 44, Boston College 14
Nov 20, 2021	at Boston College	Florida State 26, Boston College 23
Nov 9, 2019	at Boston College	Florida State 38, Boston College 31
Nov 17, 2018	at Florida State	Florida State 22, Boston College 21
Oct 27, 2017	at Boston College	Boston College 35, Florida State 3
Nov 11, 2016	at Florida State	Florida State 45, Boston College 7
Sep 18, 2015	at Boston College	Florida State 14, Boston College 0
Nov 22, 2014	at Florida State	Florida State 20, Boston College 17

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.