Putting Up Numbers· college football

South Alabama @ Arkansas State

Thu, Oct 8, 2026

South Alabama 56, Arkansas State 49Arkansas State was favored by 3, and South Alabama covered.

South Alabama at Arkansas State: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameSouth Alabama1 gameArkansas State1 game
Points+32.7+16.1
Points allowed+22.5+31.2
Total offense, yards−4+103
Total defense, yards+145−2
Touchdowns+4.0+2.9
Passer rating+15.5+29.5
Third downs−10.9%+40.8%
Sacks+0.1−1.9
Penalty yards+34.5+38.5
Turnovers forced+1.7−1.2
Turnovers lost−1.3+1.8

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Arkansas State

South Alabama

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Arkansas State

  • Arkansas State was 0.1 points a game under the closing line this season, 75th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−10.0 against the line this game.

South Alabama

  • South Alabama had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • South Alabama was 3.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 47th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+10.0 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • In a conference game, Arkansas State’s penalty yards were 44.7 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 44.0 over expected.
  • At home, Arkansas State’s points were 13.7 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 18.2 over expected.
  • At night, Arkansas State’s passing yards were 33.0 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 169.9 over expected.
  • In a conference game, South Alabama’s penalty yards were 34.3 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 34.5 over expected.
  • On the road, South Alabama’s pass attempts were 8.8 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 15.6 under expected.
  • At night, South Alabama’s third-down conversion rate were 14.9% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 12.2% under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 8, 2026at Arkansas StateSouth Alabama 56, Arkansas State 49
Oct 14, 2025at South AlabamaArkansas State 15, South Alabama 14
Oct 5, 2024at Arkansas StateArkansas State 18, South Alabama 16
Nov 11, 2023at South AlabamaSouth Alabama 21, Arkansas State 14
Oct 29, 2022at Arkansas StateSouth Alabama 31, Arkansas State 3
Oct 30, 2021at South AlabamaSouth Alabama 31, Arkansas State 13
Nov 28, 2020at Arkansas StateSouth Alabama 38, Arkansas State 31
Nov 29, 2019at South AlabamaSouth Alabama 34, Arkansas State 30
Nov 3, 2018at Arkansas StateArkansas State 38, South Alabama 14
Nov 11, 2017at South AlabamaSouth Alabama 24, Arkansas State 19

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 7, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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