Louisiana Monroe @ Arkansas State

Sat, Nov 7 · Centennial Bank Stadium

The line has it Arkansas State 34, Louisiana Monroe 20.Arkansas State −14.5, total 53.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Louisiana Monroe at Arkansas State: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Louisiana Monroe8 games	Arkansas State8 games
	−11.6	−1.0
	+11.1	+3.1
	−91	−2
	+86	+16
	−1.6	+0.1
	−21.5	+8.0
	−14.3%	+4.5%
	−0.4	−1.4
	−12.0	−11.7
	−0.5	−0.1
	−0.1	−0.3

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Arkansas State

Arkansas State is 0.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 71st of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Louisiana Monroe

Louisiana Monroe is 6.3 points a game under the closing line this season, 127th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Arkansas State leads the series 25–8 since 1974. Arkansas State has won 10 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Arkansas State is 2–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without Kenyon Clay, Arkansas State’s carries are 6.5 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
At home, Arkansas State’s passing yards are 70.5 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
Louisiana Monroe has lost 9 of its last 10.countits form →
Louisiana Monroe is 2–5 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Without Aidan Armenta, Louisiana Monroe’s penalty yards are 46.4 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Marcellus Jackson, Louisiana Monroe’s points allowed are 22.1 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Zach Palmer-Smith, Louisiana Monroe’s passing yards are 89.6 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Sep 27, 2025	at Louisiana Monroe	Louisiana Monroe 28, Arkansas State 16
Nov 23, 2024	at Arkansas State	Arkansas State 28, Louisiana Monroe 21
Oct 28, 2023	at Louisiana Monroe	Arkansas State 34, Louisiana Monroe 24
Oct 1, 2022	at Arkansas State	Arkansas State 45, Louisiana Monroe 28
Nov 13, 2021	at Louisiana Monroe	Arkansas State 27, Louisiana Monroe 24
Dec 5, 2020	at Arkansas State	Arkansas State 48, Louisiana Monroe 15
Nov 2, 2019	at Louisiana Monroe	Arkansas State 48, Louisiana Monroe 41
Nov 17, 2018	at Arkansas State	Arkansas State 31, Louisiana Monroe 17
Nov 25, 2017	at Louisiana Monroe	Arkansas State 67, Louisiana Monroe 50
Oct 29, 2016	at Arkansas State	Arkansas State 51, Louisiana Monroe 10

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.