Arkansas State
4–4 · 2–2 Sun Belt · Butch Jones, 6th season
Beat Georgia State 38–32, Oct 24 · Next: vs Louisiana Monroe, Sat, Nov 7 · analysis
Best by position: quarterbacks · running backs · wide receivers · tight ends · defenders · kickers · punters
Against the closing line
Arkansas State has beaten the line in 3 of its last 4, by 1.1 points a game. Over the season it’s 0.3 a game over, 71st of 136.
Of the 12 teams at 4–4 against a schedule this hard, Arkansas State’s +0.3 is 7th.
last 4
+1.1
before
−0.6
-10010
Oct 3, 2026 @ Louisiana +2.0
Oct 8, 2026 vs South Alabama −10.0
Oct 17, 2026 @ Southern Miss +4.0
Oct 24, 2026 vs Georgia State +8.5
Lately
- Won 6 of its last 10count
Nov 29, 2025 @ Appalachian State +1
Dec 18, 2025 vs Missouri State +6
Sep 5 @ Memphis −18- W Sep 12 vs West Georgia +45
Sep 19 @ TCU −24
Sep 26 vs Kennesaw State +3- Oct 3 @ Louisiana −3
- Oct 8 vs South Alabama −7
- Oct 17 @ Southern Miss +10
- Oct 24 vs Georgia State +6
- Won 6 of its last 10 at homecount
- S Aug 30, 2025 vs Southeast Missouri State +18
Sep 13, 2025 vs Iowa State −8
Oct 4, 2025 vs Texas State +1
Oct 25, 2025 vs Georgia Southern +10- Nov 8, 2025 vs Southern Miss −6
- Nov 20, 2025 vs Louisiana −4
- W Sep 12 vs West Georgia +45
- Sep 26 vs Kennesaw State +3
- Oct 8 vs South Alabama −7
- Oct 24 vs Georgia State +6
- Covered 6 of its last 10 at homecount
Nov 30, 2024 vs Old Dominion −2.5- Sep 13, 2025 vs Iowa State +13
- Oct 4, 2025 vs Texas State +15
- Oct 25, 2025 vs Georgia Southern +11
- Nov 8, 2025 vs Southern Miss +0.5
- Nov 20, 2025 vs Louisiana −6.5
- W Sep 12 vs West Georgia +13.5
- Sep 26 vs Kennesaw State −3.5
- Oct 8 vs South Alabama −10
- Oct 24 vs Georgia State +8.5
Against expected,
| a game | offense | defense |
|---|---|---|
| Points | −1.0 · 74th | +3.1 · 94th |
| Total yards | −2 · 62nd | +16 · 80th |
| Touchdowns | +0.1 · 61st | +0.6 · 103rd |
| Passing efficiency | +8.0 · 47th | +17.7 · 115th |
| 3rd downs | +4.5% · 39th | +5.3% · 110th |
| Turnovers | −0.3 · 32nd | −0.1 · 67th |
| Sacks | 0.0 · 68th | −1.4 · 135th |
| Penalty yards | −10.0 · 32nd |
Over (+) or under (−) what its opponents usually allow, a game, and where that stands among 136 teams, the best first. Lit is the top ten or the bottom ten. Penalty yards read against the league’s mean, since nobody allows them.
Seasons
- 2026 4–4
- 2025 7–6
- 2024 8–5
- 2023 6–7
- 2022 3–9
- 2021 2–10
- 2020 4–7
- 2019 8–5
- 2018 8–5
- 2017 7–5
- 2016 8–5
- 2015 9–4
- 2014 7–6
- 2013 8–5
- 2012 10–3
- 2011 10–3
- 2010 4–8
- 2009 4–8
- 2008 6–6
- 2007 5–7
- 2006 0–6
- 2005 2–6
- 2004 3–8
- 2003 5–7
- 2002 6–7
- 2001 2–9
- 2000 1–10
- 1999 4–7
- 1998 4–8
- 1997 2–9
- 1996 4–7
- 1995 5–5
- 1994 1–10
- 1993 1–7–1
- 1992 1–7
- 1991 1–10
- 1990 3–7–1
- 1981 6–5
- 1980 2–9
- 1979 4–7
- 1978 7–4
- 1977 7–4
- 1976 5–6
- 1975 11–0
- 1974 7–3
Method
- Against the line is each game’s points of margin less what the closing line expected, from College Football Streak King’s lines. A game nobody lined sits out, and a push hasn’t beaten it. Lately is the last 4 games with one.
- A schedule this hard means the mean rating of the opponents it’s played is within 5.2 points of the team’s, two thirds of a standard deviation of the league’s schedules, and a rating is what the season’s games say about a team’s margin against an average team. The teams beside it have its record.
- Against expected is each game against what the opponent usually gave up in its other games, with half the home edge, averaged. A game against a team with no other game here sits out.
- Passing efficiency is the NCAA’s passer rating. Turnovers on offense are the ones it lost, and on defense the ones it forced. Sacks on offense are the ones its quarterbacks took, and they start in 2024.