Western Michigan @ 
Buffalo
Western Michigan 20, Buffalo 17Western Michigan was favored by 13.5, and Buffalo covered.
| a game | Western Michigan1 game | Buffalo1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | −5.7 | −8.4 |
| Points allowed | −8.8 | −3.0 |
| Total offense, yards | −55 | −73 |
| Total defense, yards | −59 | +9 |
| Touchdowns | −1.0 | −1.1 |
| Passer rating | +17.3 | +21.4 |
| Third downs | +8.8% | −3.3% |
| Sacks | +3.1 | +0.1 |
| Penalty yards | −11.7 | +3.7 |
| Turnovers forced | −1.2 | −1.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −1.3 | −1.2 |
Who put up numbers
Buffalo
- Passing yardsJason Wright170 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsJason Wright1 passing touchdown
- Rushing yardsMessiah Burch106 rushing yards
Western Michigan
Analysis
Buffalo
- Buffalo’s total yards were 115.7 higher in a conference game than in a nonconference game against expected over its last 25 games, 2nd of 132 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 66.9 under expected.
- Buffalo had failed to cover 4 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- Buffalo was 11.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 131st of 136.fact · rankedits form →+10.5 against the line this game.
Western Michigan
- Western Michigan was 3.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 46th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−10.5 against the line this game.
The series
- Western Michigan leads the series 10–2 since 1999. Western Michigan has won the last 5.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Against an unranked opponent, Buffalo’s pass attempts were 16.1 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 17.5 under expected.
- Western Michigan had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
- Western Michigan had beaten 8 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
- On the road, Western Michigan’s carries were 8.6 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.1 under expected.
- Against an unranked opponent, Western Michigan’s passing yards were 91.6 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 31.2 over expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | at Buffalo | Western Michigan 20, Buffalo 17 |
| Oct 19, 2024 | at Buffalo | Western Michigan 48, Buffalo 41 |
| Oct 2, 2021 | at Buffalo | Western Michigan 24, Buffalo 17 |
| Oct 7, 2017 | at Buffalo | Western Michigan 71, Buffalo 68 |
| Nov 19, 2016 | at Western Michigan | Western Michigan 38, Buffalo 0 |
| Oct 12, 2013 | at Western Michigan | Buffalo 33, Western Michigan 0 |
| Nov 10, 2012 | at Buffalo | Buffalo 29, Western Michigan 24 |
| Oct 24, 2009 | at Western Michigan | Western Michigan 34, Buffalo 31 |
| Oct 11, 2008 | at Buffalo | Western Michigan 34, Buffalo 28 |
| Oct 1, 2005 | at Western Michigan | Western Michigan 31, Buffalo 21 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.