Virginia @ Florida State

Sat, Oct 3, 2026

Florida State 38, Virginia 7Virginia was favored by 1.5, and Florida State covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Florida State was 7.0 points a game under the closing line this season, 118th of 136, and 12.9 better at home than away over its last 25, 5th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+32.5 against the line this game.

Virginia had won 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Virginia had won 4 straight as the underdog.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Virginia had covered 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Virginia had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Virginia was 7.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 26th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−32.5 against the line this game.

Florida State had won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
In a conference game, Florida State’s third-down conversion rate were 27.6% under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 11.3% over expected.
At home, Florida State’s passing yards were 87.1 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 29.8 under expected.
Against an unranked opponent, Florida State’s third-down conversion rate were 15.9% over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 11.3% over expected.
Virginia had covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
Virginia had covered 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
Virginia had beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
Virginia was 3–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
In a conference game, Virginia’s carries were 23.4 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.9 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.