UTSA @ Rice

Sat, Oct 3, 2026

UTSA 16, Rice 14UTSA was favored by 12, and Rice covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Rice was 0.6 points a game under the closing line this season, 75th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+10.0 against the line this game.

UTSA’s points were 21.1 higher at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 1st of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 23.0 under expected.
UTSA had beaten 4 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
UTSA was 3.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 54th of 136, and 18.0 worse away than at home over its last 25, 136th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−10.0 against the line this game.

UTSA leads the series 10–4 since 2012. UTSA has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

Rice had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
At home, Rice’s third-down conversion rate were 25.7% under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 19.5% under expected.
At night, Rice’s rushing yards were 73.8 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 92.5 under expected.
UTSA had covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
UTSA had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
On the road, UTSA’s penalty yards were 54.0 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.1 over expected.
Against an unranked opponent, UTSA’s points were 8.3 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 23.0 under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.