Texas State @ 
San Diego State
San Diego State 31, Texas State 29Texas State was favored by 10, and San Diego State covered.
| a game | Texas State1 game | San Diego State1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | −2.4 | −3.0 |
| Points allowed | +4.5 | −1.8 |
| Total offense, yards | +160 | −194 |
| Total defense, yards | −114 | +135 |
| Touchdowns | −0.8 | −2.3 |
| Passer rating | +5.7 | −39.6 |
| Third downs | −0.7% | −32.3% |
| Sacks | −1.5 | +1.3 |
| Penalty yards | −3.4 | +0.9 |
| Turnovers forced | −1.2 | +0.8 |
| Turnovers lost | +0.8 | −1.1 |
Who put up numbers
San Diego State
- Passing yardsJayden Denegal109 passing yards
- Rushing yardsJosiah Lucas111 rushing yards
- Rushing touchdownsJosiah Lucas2 rushing touchdowns
Texas State
Analysis
San Diego State
- San Diego State had failed to cover 4 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- San Diego State was 12.4 points a game under the closing line this season, 133rd of 136, and 11.9 better at home than away over its last 25, 10th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+12.0 against the line this game.
Texas State
- Texas State was 1.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 68th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−12.0 against the line this game.
The series
- San Diego State leads the series 1–0 since 2026.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- San Diego State had won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- At home, San Diego State’s carries were 11.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.7 under expected.
- On the road, Texas State’s points allowed were 26.0 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.6 over expected.
- Against an unranked opponent, Texas State’s rushing yards were 111.3 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 30.9 under expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | at San Diego State | San Diego State 31, Texas State 29 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.