San Jose State @ Hawaii

Sat, Oct 3, 2026

San Jose State 20, Hawaii 16Hawaii was favored by 2.5, and San Jose State covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Hawaii’s points allowed were 12.3 lower at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 134th of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 1.4 under expected.
Hawaii was 8.6 points a game under the closing line this season, 125th of 136, and 17.4 better at home than away over its last 25, 2nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →−6.5 against the line this game.

San Jose State was 1.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 65th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+6.5 against the line this game.

San Jose State leads the series 23–21–1 since 1955. San Jose State has won the last 6.seriesevery meeting →

Hawaii had covered 9 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
Hawaii had won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
In a conference game, Hawaii’s points were 15.1 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.8 under expected.
San Jose State had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
San Jose State had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
Against an unranked opponent, San Jose State’s penalty yards were 19.9 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 7.9 over expected.
On the road, San Jose State’s total yards were 60.3 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 27.4 under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.