Northern Illinois @ San Jose State

Sat, Nov 7 · CEFCU Stadium

The line has it San Jose State 31, Northern Illinois 21.San Jose State −10, total 52, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Northern Illinois at San Jose State: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Northern Illinois8 games	San Jose State9 games
	−8.6	−6.9
	+13.9	−1.5
	−34	−41
	+85	+38
	−0.9	−1.1
	−15.8	−8.6
	−8.1%	−6.2%
	−1.1	+1.2
	−7.3	−7.9
	−0.2	0.0
	+0.4	−0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

San Jose State

San Jose State is 1.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 60th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois has lost 10 straight, the longest active losing streak in FBS.streakthe runs →
Northern Illinois is 6.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 128th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Northern Illinois leads the series 1–0 since 1995.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Without Jabari Bates, San Jose State’s rushing yards are 100.7 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Luke Weaver, San Jose State’s pass attempts are 6.4 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
At home, San Jose State’s penalty yards are 22.1 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
Northern Illinois has failed to cover 8 of its last 10.countits form →
Northern Illinois is 2–6 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
On the road, Northern Illinois’ pass attempts are 5.8 over expected in 5 games. A +15.7 difference in pass attempts over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 10 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Sep 16, 1995	at San Jose State	Northern Illinois 18, San Jose State 17

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.