Hawaii’s points allowed at home and away
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Hawaii was 4.1 points under at home and 5.6 points over away over its last 25 games, 13 games against 11. The plain averages are 19.7 and 33.4, a difference of 13.6.
Hawaii’s −9.7 at home vs away over expected ranks 126th of the 136 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
points allowed a game over expected
at home
−4.1
away
+5.6
-20020
A −9.7 difference in points allowed over expected at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 2 times in 100.
plain
19.7
33.4
2040
A −13.6 difference in points allowed at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Fresno State | W | 20 | 28.4 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs UNLV | L | 29 | 32.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Utah State | L | 55 | 29.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs New Mexico | W | 30 | 30.8 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 20 | 24.8 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Arizona | L | 40 | 33.4 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 20 | 16.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsPPortland State | W | 3 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsFresno State | L | 23 | 22.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Air Force | W | 35 | 29.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vsUtah State | W | 26 | 29.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Colorado State | W | 19 | 25.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ San Jose State | L | 45 | 22.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs San Diego State | W | 6 | 28.4 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | @UNLV | L | 38 | 33.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Wyoming | W | 7 | 17.3 | |
| Dec 24, 2025 | vs California | W | 31 | 26.6 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @Stanford | L | 37 | 25.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsUNLV | L | 21 | 23.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs New Mexico State | W | 19 | 20.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Wyoming | L | 27 | 21.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsSan Jose State | L | 20 | 21.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Arizona State | L | 30 | 32.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsNew Mexico | L | 21 | 32.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 21 | 24.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.5 in 2024, minus 1.5 in 2025, minus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Portland State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.