Putting Up Numbers· college football

Notre Dame @ North Carolina

Sat, Oct 3, 2026 · No. 3 at unranked

Notre Dame 37, North Carolina 26Notre Dame was favored by 21, and North Carolina covered.

Notre Dame at North Carolina: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameNotre Dame1 gameNorth Carolina1 game
Points+15.2+6.0
Points allowed−0.4+5.3
Total offense, yards+105−18
Total defense, yards−80+84
Touchdowns+2.4+0.7
Passer rating+53.6+15.5
Third downs−3.9%+11.0%
Sacks−1.4−1.2
Penalty yards−23.8−34.2
Turnovers forced+0.8−1.3
Turnovers lost−1.2+0.7

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

North Carolina

Notre Dame

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

North Carolina

  • North Carolina was 1.2 points a game over the closing line this season, 67th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+10.0 against the line this game.

Notre Dame

  • Notre Dame had won 14 straight by 10 or more.streakthe runs →Extended to 15.
  • Notre Dame had beaten 19 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 20.
  • Notre Dame had won 14 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 15.
  • Notre Dame had won 5 straight on the road.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
  • Notre Dame had won 8 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • Notre Dame was 3.8 points a game over the closing line this season, 44th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−10.0 against the line this game.

The series

  • Notre Dame leads the series 22–1 since 1949. Notre Dame has won the last 12.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Notre Dame had covered 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Notre Dame was 3–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • On the road, Notre Dame’s points of margin were 30.0 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.0 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 3, 2026at North CarolinaNotre Dame 37, North Carolina 26
Sep 24, 2022at North CarolinaNotre Dame 45, North Carolina 32
Oct 30, 2021at Notre DameNotre Dame 44, North Carolina 34
Nov 27, 2020at North CarolinaNotre Dame 31, North Carolina 17
Oct 7, 2017at North CarolinaNotre Dame 33, North Carolina 10
Oct 11, 2014at Notre DameNotre Dame 50, North Carolina 43
Nov 4, 2006at Notre DameNotre Dame 45, North Carolina 26
Oct 11, 1975at North CarolinaNotre Dame 21, North Carolina 14
Oct 16, 1971at Notre DameNotre Dame 16, North Carolina 0
Oct 15, 1966at Notre DameNotre Dame 32, North Carolina 0

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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