Michigan State @ Wisconsin

Sat, Oct 3, 2026

Wisconsin 31, Michigan State 3Wisconsin was favored by 8.5, and Wisconsin covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Wisconsin had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
Wisconsin was 2.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 59th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+19.5 against the line this game.

Michigan State had covered 6 straight on the road.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Michigan State was 2.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 60th of 136, and 9.2 better away than at home over its last 25, 7th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−19.5 against the line this game.

Michigan State leads the series 31–24 since 1913. Wisconsin has won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

At home, Wisconsin’s third-down conversion rate were 21.3% over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 10.1% over expected.
In a conference game, Wisconsin’s pass attempts were 13.5 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.0 under expected.
Michigan State had covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
Michigan State had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
On the road, Michigan State’s pass attempts were 11.2 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.2 over expected.
In a conference game, Michigan State’s rushing yards were 99.4 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 40.7 over expected.
Against an unranked opponent, Michigan State’s carries were 6.9 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 10.3 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.