Michigan @ Minnesota

Sat, Oct 3, 2026

Minnesota 20, Michigan 14Michigan was favored by 6.5, and Minnesota covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Minnesota was 2.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 55th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+12.5 against the line this game.

Michigan had beaten 7 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Michigan was 4.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 103rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →−12.5 against the line this game.

Minnesota had won 9 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 10 of 11.
Minnesota had beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
At home, Minnesota’s carries were 7.3 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 10.5 over expected.
In a conference game, Minnesota’s points were 9.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.0 under expected.
Michigan had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
Michigan had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
In a conference game, Michigan’s total yards were 155.0 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 152.3 under expected.
Against an unranked opponent, Michigan’s carries were 6.2 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 8.7 under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.