Baylor @ 
Arizona State
Baylor 55, Arizona State 19Arizona State was favored by 3.5, and Baylor covered.
| a game | Baylor1 game | Arizona State1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | +29.9 | −3.1 |
| Points allowed | −10.7 | +32.0 |
| Total offense, yards | +221 | +28 |
| Total defense, yards | +16 | +186 |
| Touchdowns | +4.4 | −1.6 |
| Passer rating | +29.3 | −11.0 |
| Third downs | +24.8% | −11.4% |
| Sacks | +0.4 | −0.3 |
| Penalty yards | −12.9 | −42.2 |
| Turnovers forced | +1.8 | −1.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −1.3 | +1.7 |
Who put up numbers
Arizona State
- Passing yardsCutter Boley304 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsCutter Boley1 passing touchdown
- Rushing yardsKyson Brown34 rushing yards
Baylor
Analysis
Arizona State
- Arizona State was 2.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 60th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−39.5 against the line this game.
Baylor
- Baylor was 1.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 63rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+39.5 against the line this game.
The series
- Arizona State leads the series 2–1 since 1990.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Arizona State had won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- Against an unranked opponent, Arizona State’s passing yards were 131.3 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 66.8 over expected.
- In a conference game, Arizona State’s passing yards were 131.3 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 66.8 over expected.
- In a conference game, Baylor’s penalty yards were 25.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 17.2 under expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | at Arizona State | Baylor 55, Arizona State 19 |
| Sep 20, 2025 | at Baylor | Arizona State 27, Baylor 24 |
| Sep 8, 1990 | at Arizona State | Arizona State 34, Baylor 13 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.