Colorado @ Arizona State

Sat, Nov 7 · Mountain America Stadium

The line has it Arizona State 26, Colorado 23.Arizona State −3, total 49, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Colorado at Arizona State: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Colorado8 games	Arizona State8 games
	−8.1	+0.2
	+0.7	+6.2
	−9	−10
	−28	−14
	−0.8	−0.2
	−5.7	−12.8
	−1.4%	−9.2%
	+0.7	0.0
	+20.0	−7.6
	−0.5	−0.1
	+0.9	+0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Arizona State

Arizona State is 3.0 points a game under the closing line this season, 105th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Colorado

Colorado is 6.0 points a game under the closing line this season, 123rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Arizona State leads the series 9–4 since 2006.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Arizona State has won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
Arizona State has beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →
Arizona State is 2–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Since Cutter Boley’s last game, Arizona State’s rushing yards are 28.7 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Against an unranked opponent, Arizona State’s third-down conversion rate are 10.0% under expected in 4 games. A −9.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected vs an unranked opponent and vs a ranked opponent is unusual: shuffle which games were vs an unranked opponent and it comes up 3 times in 100.thinthe split →
At home, Arizona State’s third-down conversion rate are 9.5% under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
Colorado has lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Colorado is 2–4 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Without Isaac Wilson, Colorado’s passing yards are 83.2 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since Micah Welch’s last game, Colorado’s points allowed are 13.9 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
On the road, Colorado’s third-down conversion rate are 6.6% under expected in 4 games. A −12.6% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 9 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Nov 22, 2025	at Colorado	Arizona State 42, Colorado 17
Oct 7, 2023	at Arizona State	Colorado 27, Arizona State 24
Sep 21, 2019	at Arizona State	Colorado 34, Arizona State 31
Oct 6, 2018	at Colorado	Colorado 28, Arizona State 21
Nov 4, 2017	at Arizona State	Arizona State 41, Colorado 30
Oct 15, 2016	at Colorado	Colorado 40, Arizona State 16
Oct 10, 2015	at Arizona State	Arizona State 48, Colorado 23
Sep 13, 2014	at Colorado	Arizona State 38, Colorado 24
Oct 12, 2013	at Arizona State	Arizona State 54, Colorado 13
Oct 11, 2012	at Colorado	Arizona State 51, Colorado 17

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.