Putting Up Numbers· college football

Auburn @ Tennessee

Sat, Oct 3, 2026 · Unranked at No. 17

Tennessee 24, Auburn 14Tennessee was favored by 6, and Tennessee covered.

Auburn at Tennessee: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameAuburn1 gameTennessee1 game
Points−4.8−6.6
Points allowed−7.2−8.1
Total offense, yards+33−88
Total defense, yards−71−4
Touchdowns0.0−0.4
Passer rating−21.6−48.2
Third downs+0.3%−20.6%
Sacks+0.7+0.6
Penalty yards+33.2−29.8
Turnovers forced+0.8+1.8
Turnovers lost+1.7+0.8

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Tennessee

Auburn

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Tennessee

  • Tennessee was 1.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 64th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+4.0 against the line this game.

Auburn

  • Auburn was 2.4 points a game under the closing line this season, 85th of 136, and 9.4 better away than at home over its last 25, 6th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−4.0 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • Tennessee had beaten 9 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 10 of 11.
  • In a conference game, Tennessee’s rushing yards were 89.4 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 64.6 over expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Tennessee’s rushing yards were 62.4 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 64.6 over expected.
  • At home, Tennessee’s penalty yards were 21.6 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 31.2 under expected.
  • Auburn had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • In a conference game, Auburn’s carries were 7.9 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.2 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 3, 2026at TennesseeTennessee 24, Auburn 14
Nov 21, 2020at AuburnAuburn 30, Tennessee 17
Oct 13, 2018at AuburnTennessee 30, Auburn 24
Nov 9, 2013at TennesseeAuburn 55, Tennessee 23
Oct 3, 2009at TennesseeAuburn 26, Tennessee 22
Sep 27, 2008at AuburnAuburn 14, Tennessee 12
Dec 4, 2004neutralAuburn 38, Tennessee 28
Oct 2, 2004at TennesseeAuburn 34, Tennessee 10
Oct 4, 2003at AuburnAuburn 28, Tennessee 21
Oct 2, 1999at TennesseeTennessee 24, Auburn 0

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.