Arkansas @ Auburn

Sat, Nov 7 · Jordan-Hare Stadium

The line has it Auburn 32, Arkansas 21.Auburn −10.5, total 52.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Arkansas at Auburn: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Arkansas8 games	Auburn8 games
	−5.8	−0.7
	+1.4	−2.6
	−34	+5
	+13	+13
	−0.9	−0.1
	−17.0	−5.8
	−0.2%	+5.3%
	−0.8	+0.2
	−2.9	+8.5
	+0.1	+0.3
	−0.2	+0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Auburn

Auburn is 3.0 points a game under the closing line this season, 105th of 136, and 8.5 worse at home than away over its last 25, 130th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Arkansas

Arkansas is 3.8 points a game under the closing line this season, 110th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Auburn leads the series 21–13–1 since 1984.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Auburn has beaten 8 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →
Auburn has failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Without Bryson Washington, Auburn’s penalty yards are 15.6 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Arkansas has lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Arkansas has failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Arkansas is 2–4 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Since Chris Marshall’s last game, Arkansas’ penalty yards are 30.6 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Against an unranked opponent, Arkansas’ points allowed are 6.5 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Oct 25, 2025	at Arkansas	Auburn 33, Arkansas 24
Sep 21, 2024	at Auburn	Arkansas 24, Auburn 14
Nov 11, 2023	at Arkansas	Auburn 48, Arkansas 10
Oct 29, 2022	at Auburn	Arkansas 41, Auburn 27
Oct 16, 2021	at Arkansas	Auburn 38, Arkansas 23
Oct 10, 2020	at Auburn	Auburn 30, Arkansas 28
Oct 19, 2019	at Arkansas	Auburn 51, Arkansas 10
Sep 22, 2018	at Auburn	Auburn 34, Arkansas 3
Oct 21, 2017	at Arkansas	Auburn 52, Arkansas 20
Oct 22, 2016	at Auburn	Auburn 56, Arkansas 3

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.