Putting Up Numbers· college football

Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State

Thu, Oct 1, 2026

New Mexico State 34, Western Kentucky 13New Mexico State was favored by 1.5, and New Mexico State covered.

Western Kentucky at New Mexico State: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameWestern Kentucky1 gameNew Mexico State1 game
Points−12.9+0.9
Points allowed+11.4−7.0
Total offense, yards+3−63
Total defense, yards−11+11
Touchdowns−1.8−1.1
Passer rating−2.7−38.2
Third downs−0.3%−22.5%
Sacks−0.8+4.0
Penalty yards+26.4−25.6
Turnovers forced−0.2−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.2−0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

New Mexico State

Western Kentucky

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

New Mexico State

  • New Mexico State was 1.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 63rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+19.5 against the line this game.

Western Kentucky

  • Western Kentucky was 8.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 125th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−19.5 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • New Mexico State had lost 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • At home, New Mexico State’s total yards were 122.3 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 37.3 under expected.
  • Western Kentucky had covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Western Kentucky’s carries were 9.3 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 7.2 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 1, 2026at New Mexico StateNew Mexico State 34, Western Kentucky 13
Nov 1, 2025at Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky 35, New Mexico State 16
Nov 9, 2024at New Mexico StateWestern Kentucky 41, New Mexico State 28
Nov 11, 2023at Western KentuckyNew Mexico State 38, Western Kentucky 29

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.