Putting Up Numbers· college football

Liberty @ New Mexico State

Sat, Nov 7 · Aggie Memorial Stadium

The line has it Liberty 32, New Mexico State 15.Liberty −17, total 46.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Liberty at New Mexico State: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameLiberty8 gamesNew Mexico State8 games
+9.3−8.5
−13.3+3.3
+31−42
−95−3
+1.4−1.3
+29.7−38.5
+11.3%−3.0%
+0.3+0.1
+23.9−9.7
−0.1−0.2
−0.7+0.8

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

New Mexico State

  • New Mexico State is 0.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 76th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Liberty

  • Liberty has covered 6 straight.streakthe runs →
  • Liberty has won 6 straight by 10 or more, the longest active streak of wins by 10 or more in FBS.streakthe runs →
  • Liberty has beaten 7 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →
  • Liberty has won 7 straight.streakthe runs →
  • Liberty has won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →
  • Liberty is 10.0 points a game over the closing line this season, 5th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

  • Liberty leads the series 7–2 since 2018. Liberty has won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • New Mexico State is 1–4 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
  • Since TK King’s last game, New Mexico State’s passing yards are 194.7 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
  • Since Trey Hedden’s last game, New Mexico State’s passing yards are 93.6 under expected in 4 games. A −174.7 difference in passing yards over expected since Trey Hedden’s last game vs with Trey Hedden is unusual: shuffle which games were since Trey Hedden’s last game and it comes up 3 times in 100.thinwithout him →
  • Without Adam Damante, New Mexico State’s pass attempts are 8.2 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
  • Liberty is 6–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
  • Without Kanye Udoh, Liberty’s penalty yards are 32.7 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
  • At night, Liberty’s penalty yards are 38.7 over expected in 4 games. A +49.1 difference in penalty yards over expected at night vs by day is unusual: shuffle which games were at night and it comes up 3 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 14, 2025at LibertyLiberty 30, New Mexico State 27
Sep 7, 2024at New Mexico StateLiberty 30, New Mexico State 24
Dec 1, 2023at LibertyLiberty 49, New Mexico State 35
Sep 9, 2023at LibertyLiberty 33, New Mexico State 17
Nov 26, 2022at LibertyNew Mexico State 49, Liberty 14
Nov 30, 2019at LibertyLiberty 49, New Mexico State 28
Oct 5, 2019at New Mexico StateLiberty 20, New Mexico State 13
Nov 24, 2018at LibertyLiberty 28, New Mexico State 21
Oct 6, 2018at New Mexico StateNew Mexico State 49, Liberty 41

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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