Troy @ Utah State

Sat, Sep 26, 2026

Utah State 21, Troy 10Utah State was favored by 3, and Utah State covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Utah State had lost 5 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Utah State was 2.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 95th of 135.fact · rankedits form →+8.0 against the line this game.

Troy was 1.0 points a game under the closing line this season, 88th of 135, and 8.8 better away than at home over its last 25, 8th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−8.0 against the line this game.

Utah State had covered 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
Utah State had won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Troy had covered 8 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Troy had beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
On the road, Troy’s points of margin were 24.3 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.9 under expected.
Against an unranked opponent, Troy’s points of margin were 14.4 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.9 under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 25, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.