Putting Up Numbers· college football

TCU @ UCF

Sat, Sep 26, 2026

UCF 21, TCU 13TCU was favored by 3.5, and UCF covered.

TCU at UCF: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameTCU1 gameUCF1 game
Points−12.9−0.1
Points allowed−8.7−8.4
Total offense, yards−43−82
Total defense, yards−112−24
Touchdowns−2.0+0.7
Passer rating−20.8+53.7
Third downs+3.8%−8.5%
Sacks−0.2+1.5
Penalty yards+29.1−7.9
Turnovers forced+0.8+2.8
Turnovers lost+2.8+0.8

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

UCF

TCU

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

UCF

  • UCF was 7.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 30th of 135.fact · rankedits form →+11.5 against the line this game.

TCU

  • TCU was 1.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 68th of 135.fact · rankedits form →−11.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • UCF leads the series 2–0 since 2024. UCF has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • UCF had won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • At home, UCF’s rushing yards were 150.9 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 28.7 under expected.
  • TCU had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Sep 26, 2026at UCFUCF 21, TCU 13
Sep 14, 2024at TCUUCF 35, TCU 34

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 25, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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