Putting Up Numbers· college football

Rice @ Fresno State

Sat, Sep 26, 2026

Fresno State 38, Rice 24Fresno State was favored by 12, and Fresno State covered.

Rice at Fresno State: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameRice1 gameFresno State1 game
Points+2.5+4.9
Points allowed+10.5+5.1
Total offense, yards+84+66
Total defense, yards+108+136
Touchdowns+0.6+0.9
Passer rating−22.5+0.1
Third downs−1.9%+3.4%
Sacks−2.2−0.1
Penalty yards−29.4−38.0
Turnovers forced−1.2+0.8
Turnovers lost+0.7−1.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Fresno State

Rice

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Fresno State

  • Fresno State had beaten 4 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
  • Fresno State was 7.7 points a game over the closing line this season, 24th of 135.fact · rankedits form →+2.0 against the line this game.

Rice

  • Rice was 0.2 points a game under the closing line this season, 82nd of 135.fact · rankedits form →−2.0 against the line this game.

The series

  • Fresno State leads the series 7–1 since 1999. Fresno State has won 4 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Fresno State had won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Fresno State’s penalty yards were 22.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 29.2 under expected.
  • Rice had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • On the road, Rice’s rushing yards were 104.0 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 151.7 over expected.
  • At night, Rice’s third-down conversion rate were 25.6% under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.7% over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Sep 26, 2026at Fresno StateFresno State 38, Rice 24
Dec 24, 2014neutralRice 30, Fresno State 6
Nov 6, 2004at RiceFresno State 52, Rice 21
Oct 25, 2003at Fresno StateFresno State 31, Rice 28
Sep 28, 2002at RiceFresno State 31, Rice 28
Nov 3, 2001at Fresno StateFresno State 52, Rice 24
Oct 5, 2000at RiceFresno State 27, Rice 24
Nov 6, 1999at Fresno StateFresno State 47, Rice 18

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 25, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.