Missouri State @ 
SMU
SMU 34, Missouri State 24SMU was favored by 30.5, and Missouri State covered.
| a game | Missouri State1 game | SMU1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | +1.5 | +1.2 |
| Points allowed | +1.5 | +2.7 |
| Total offense, yards | −99 | +174 |
| Total defense, yards | +164 | −113 |
| Touchdowns | −0.7 | +1.1 |
| Passer rating | −10.9 | +63.6 |
| Third downs | −9.5% | +24.9% |
| Sacks | −0.7 | +5.2 |
| Penalty yards | +0.3 | +52.0 |
| Turnovers forced | +0.8 | −0.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −0.1 | +0.9 |
Who put up numbers
SMU
- Passing yardsKevin Jennings464 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsKevin Jennings3 passing touchdowns
- Rushing yardsKendrick Raphael98 rushing yards
Missouri State
Analysis
SMU
- SMU had covered 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- SMU had won 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
- SMU was 2.2 points a game over the closing line this season, 63rd of 135.fact · rankedits form →−20.5 against the line this game.
Missouri State
- Missouri State was 1.7 points a game over the closing line this season, 67th of 135.fact · rankedits form →+20.5 against the line this game.
The series
- SMU leads the series 2–0 since 2025. SMU has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- SMU had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- SMU had beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- At night, SMU’s passing yards were 166.3 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 182.8 over expected.
- Against an unranked opponent, SMU’s passing yards were 166.3 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 182.8 over expected.
- On the road, Missouri State’s passing yards were 193.4 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 16.3 under expected.
- At night, Missouri State’s passing yards were 193.4 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 16.3 under expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | at SMU | SMU 34, Missouri State 24 |
| Sep 13, 2025 | at Missouri State | SMU 28, Missouri State 10 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 25, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.