Putting Up Numbers· college football

Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State

Sat, Sep 26, 2026

Jacksonville State 23, Middle Tennessee 13Jacksonville State was favored by 7, and Jacksonville State covered.

Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameMiddle Tennessee1 gameJacksonville State1 game
Points−8.7−10.0
Points allowed−4.4−8.9
Total offense, yards−18+120
Total defense, yards+136−13
Touchdowns−0.3−2.0
Passer rating+28.3−2.7
Third downs−6.7%−6.9%
Sacks−0.2+1.4
Penalty yards−5.2−26.2
Turnovers forced+0.8−1.2
Turnovers lost−1.2+0.8

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Jacksonville State

Middle Tennessee

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Jacksonville State

  • Jacksonville State was 0.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 80th of 135, and 11.7 better at home than away over its last 25, 7th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+3.0 against the line this game.

Middle Tennessee

  • Middle Tennessee had covered 5 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • Middle Tennessee was 7.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 26th of 135.fact · rankedits form →−3.0 against the line this game.

The series

  • Jacksonville State leads the series 4–0 since 2023. Jacksonville State has won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Jacksonville State had won 9 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 10 of 11.
  • Jacksonville State had covered 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • At home, Jacksonville State’s carries were 13.2 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.5 over expected.
  • On the road, Middle Tennessee’s pass attempts were 15.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.4 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Sep 26, 2026at Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 23, Middle Tennessee 13
Oct 29, 2025at Middle TennesseeJacksonville State 24, Middle Tennessee 21
Oct 23, 2024at Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 42, Middle Tennessee 20
Oct 4, 2023at Middle TennesseeJacksonville State 45, Middle Tennessee 30

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 25, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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