Middle Tennessee
4–4 · 2–2 Conference USA · Derek Mason, 3rd season
Lost to Kennesaw State 44–28, Oct 28 · Next: vs Western Kentucky, Sat, Nov 7 · analysis
Best by position: quarterbacks · running backs · wide receivers · tight ends · defenders · kickers · punters
Against the closing line
Middle Tennessee has beaten the line in 2 of its last 4, 7.8 points a game under it. Over the season it’s 1.4 a game under, 87th of 136.
Of the 13 teams at 4–4 against a schedule this hard, Middle Tennessee’s −1.4 is 10th.
last 4
−7.8
before
+4.9
-200
Oct 3, 2026 @ Kansas −34.0
Oct 13, 2026 vs Delaware +4.5
Oct 20, 2026 @ Florida International +13.0
Oct 28, 2026 vs Kennesaw State −14.5
Lately
- Covered 7 of its last 10count
Nov 22, 2025 vs Sam Houston +7.5
Nov 29, 2025 @ New Mexico State +10.5- M Sep 5 vs Murray State +1.5
Sep 12 @ Marshall +10
Sep 19 vs Nevada +11
Sep 26 @ Jacksonville State −3- Oct 3 @ Kansas −34
- Oct 13 vs Delaware +4.5
- Oct 20 @ Florida International +13
- Oct 28 vs Kennesaw State −14.5
- Won 6 of its last 10count
- Nov 22, 2025 vs Sam Houston +14
- Nov 29, 2025 @ New Mexico State +7
- M Sep 5 vs Murray State +24
- Sep 12 @ Marshall −2
- Sep 19 vs Nevada +7
- Sep 26 @ Jacksonville State −10
- Oct 3 @ Kansas −55
- Oct 13 vs Delaware +3
- Oct 20 @ Florida International +3
- Oct 28 vs Kennesaw State −16
- Covered 6 of its last 10 at homecount
- Nov 23, 2024 vs New Mexico State −18.5
- Sep 20, 2025 vs Marshall −11.5
Oct 8, 2025 vs Missouri State +1- Oct 29, 2025 vs Jacksonville State +1.5
- Nov 8, 2025 vs Florida International −27.5
- Nov 22, 2025 vs Sam Houston +7.5
- M Sep 5 vs Murray State +1.5
- Sep 19 vs Nevada +11
- Oct 13 vs Delaware +4.5
- Oct 28 vs Kennesaw State −14.5
Against expected,
| a game | offense | defense |
|---|---|---|
| Points | −4.3 · 92nd | +8.6 · 120th |
| Total yards | −37 · 95th | +42 · 108th |
| Touchdowns | −0.8 · 101st | +1.2 · 119th |
| Passing efficiency | −16.3 · 105th | +21.6 · 122nd |
| 3rd downs | −11.0% · 129th | +0.3% · 72nd |
| Turnovers | −0.3 · 29th | +0.2 · 31st |
| Sacks | −0.7 · 30th | −0.6 · 106th |
| Penalty yards | −3.3 · 54th |
Over (+) or under (−) what its opponents usually allow, a game, and where that stands among 136 teams, the best first. Lit is the top ten or the bottom ten. Penalty yards read against the league’s mean, since nobody allows them.
Seasons
Method
- Against the line is each game’s points of margin less what the closing line expected, from College Football Streak King’s lines. A game nobody lined sits out, and a push hasn’t beaten it. Lately is the last 4 games with one.
- A schedule this hard means the mean rating of the opponents it’s played is within 5.2 points of the team’s, two thirds of a standard deviation of the league’s schedules, and a rating is what the season’s games say about a team’s margin against an average team. The teams beside it have its record.
- Against expected is each game against what the opponent usually gave up in its other games, with half the home edge, averaged. A game against a team with no other game here sits out.
- Passing efficiency is the NCAA’s passer rating. Turnovers on offense are the ones it lost, and on defense the ones it forced. Sacks on offense are the ones its quarterbacks took, and they start in 2024.