Putting Up Numbers· college football

UTSA @ Texas

Sat, Sep 19, 2026 · Unranked at No. 1

Texas 30, UTSA 6Texas was favored by 29.5, and UTSA covered.

UTSA at Texas: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameUTSA1 gameTexas1 game
Points−14.2+0.6
Points allowed+0.4−23.5
Total offense, yards−170+4
Total defense, yards+34−254
Touchdowns−1.8−0.4
Passer rating−47.0−28.3
Third downs−27.8%+1.9%
Sacks−1.6−0.9
Penalty yards+60.0+31.0
Turnovers forced−1.2−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.2−1.3

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Texas

UTSA

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Texas

  • Texas had won 11 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 12.
  • Texas had won 5 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
  • Texas had beaten 4 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.

UTSA

  • UTSA’s points were 20.7 higher at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 1st of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 11.9 under expected.

The series

  • Texas leads the series 3–0 since 2022. Texas has won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Against an unranked opponent, Texas’ points were 26.0 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.6 under expected.
  • UTSA had covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Sep 19, 2026at TexasTexas 30, UTSA 6
Sep 14, 2024at TexasTexas 56, UTSA 7
Sep 17, 2022at TexasTexas 41, UTSA 20

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 18, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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