Putting Up Numbers· college football

Troy @ Missouri

Sat, Sep 19, 2026 · Unranked at No. 20

Missouri 27, Troy 17Missouri was favored by 26.5, and Troy covered.

Troy at Missouri: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameTroy1 gameMissouri1 game
Points−3.1−1.5
Points allowed−3.4−3.9
Total offense, yards−25−164
Total defense, yards−201−27
Touchdowns−0.3−1.5
Passer rating+1.6−28.3
Third downs+2.6%−22.0%
Sacks−1.4+0.7
Penalty yards−0.1+35.4
Turnovers forced−1.3+0.8
Turnovers lost+0.7−1.4

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Missouri

Troy

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Missouri

  • Missouri’s third-down conversion rate were 22.6% lower vs a ranked opponent than vs an unranked opponent against expected over its last 25 games, 77th of 77 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 28.2% under expected.
  • Missouri had beaten 26 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 27.

The series

  • Missouri leads the series 4–1 since 2002. Missouri has won the last 3. Missouri has won 4 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Missouri had won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Troy had covered 8 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 9 of 11.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Sep 19, 2026at MissouriMissouri 27, Troy 17
Oct 5, 2019at MissouriMissouri 42, Troy 10
Sep 17, 2005at MissouriMissouri 52, Troy 21
Sep 9, 2004at TroyTroy 24, Missouri 14
Sep 28, 2002at MissouriMissouri 44, Troy 7

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 18, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

Read next