North Texas @ 
Texas State
Texas State 49, North Texas 35Texas State was favored by 3, and Texas State covered.
| a game | North Texas1 game | Texas State1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | +6.0 | +16.9 |
| Points allowed | +15.8 | +0.7 |
| Total offense, yards | +192 | +205 |
| Total defense, yards | +148 | +112 |
| Touchdowns | +1.5 | +3.1 |
| Passer rating | +24.3 | +83.9 |
| Third downs | +29.7% | +19.9% |
| Sacks | −1.7 | −1.5 |
| Penalty yards | +33.5 | +27.4 |
| Turnovers forced | −1.2 | +0.8 |
| Turnovers lost | +0.9 | −1.3 |
Who put up numbers
Texas State
- Passing yardsBrad Jackson268 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsBrad Jackson4 passing touchdowns
- Rushing yardsTorrance Burgess Jr.214 rushing yards
North Texas
Analysis
North Texas
- North Texas had beaten 13 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- North Texas had covered 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
- North Texas had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
The series
- Texas State leads the series 2–0 since 2024. Texas State has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Texas State had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- At home, Texas State’s penalty yards were 31.0 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 28.9 over expected.
- North Texas had covered 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- North Texas had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- North Texas had won 7 of its last 10 by 10 or more.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- Against an unranked opponent, North Texas’ points allowed were 25.9 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 12.6 over expected.
- On the road, North Texas’ points allowed were 19.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 12.6 over expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | at Texas State | Texas State 49, North Texas 35 |
| Jan 3, 2025 | neutral | Texas State 30, North Texas 28 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 18, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.