Putting Up Numbers· college football

Michigan State @ Notre Dame

Sat, Sep 19, 2026 · Unranked at No. 3

Notre Dame 27, Michigan State 10Notre Dame was favored by 28.5, and Michigan State covered.

Michigan State at Notre Dame: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameMichigan State1 gameNotre Dame1 game
Points−6.9−2.5
Points allowed−9.8−9.3
Total offense, yards−119+24
Total defense, yards−30−138
Touchdowns−0.9−0.4
Passer rating−41.7+17.2
Third downs−1.6%−7.3%
Sacks+0.1+1.4
Penalty yards−24.3−22.5
Turnovers forced−1.3+0.8
Turnovers lost+0.6−1.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Notre Dame

Michigan State

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Notre Dame

  • Notre Dame had won 12 straight by 10 or more.streakthe runs →Extended to 13.
  • Notre Dame had beaten 17 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 18.
  • Notre Dame had won 12 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 13.
  • Notre Dame had won 7 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 8.
  • Notre Dame had won 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.

Michigan State

  • Michigan State had covered 5 straight on the road.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.

The series

  • Notre Dame leads the series 43–28–1 since 1899. Notre Dame has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • At night, Notre Dame’s rushing yards were 37.5 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 11.8 under expected.
  • Michigan State had covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Michigan State had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Sep 19, 2026at Notre DameNotre Dame 27, Michigan State 10
Sep 23, 2017at Michigan StateNotre Dame 38, Michigan State 18
Sep 17, 2016at Notre DameMichigan State 36, Notre Dame 28
Sep 17, 2011at Notre DameNotre Dame 31, Michigan State 13
Sep 18, 2010at Michigan StateMichigan State 34, Notre Dame 31
Sep 19, 2009at Notre DameNotre Dame 33, Michigan State 30
Sep 20, 2008at Michigan StateMichigan State 23, Notre Dame 7
Sep 22, 2007at Notre DameMichigan State 31, Notre Dame 14
Sep 23, 2006at Michigan StateNotre Dame 40, Michigan State 37
Sep 17, 2005at Notre DameMichigan State 44, Notre Dame 41

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 18, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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