Putting Up Numbers· college football

Marshall @ Missouri State

Sat, Sep 19, 2026

Marshall 30, Missouri State 24Marshall was favored by 4, and Marshall covered.

Marshall at Missouri State: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameMarshall1 gameMissouri State1 game
Points+1.4−9.0
Points allowed−1.6+9.9
Total offense, yards+69+96
Total defense, yards+148+121
Touchdowns−0.6−0.5
Passer rating+1.5+42.7
Third downs+13.2%+5.9%
Sacks−2.2−2.2
Penalty yards−0.9+33.1
Turnovers forced−0.2−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.2−0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Missouri State

Marshall

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Marshall

  • Marshall had failed to cover 4 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.

The series

If you squint

  • On the road, Marshall’s third-down conversion rate were 24.2% under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 13.9% over expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Marshall’s total yards were 91.5 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 86.0 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Sep 19, 2026at Missouri StateMarshall 30, Missouri State 24
Sep 6, 2025at MarshallMissouri State 21, Marshall 20

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 18, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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