Putting Up Numbers· college football

Buffalo @ Penn State

Sat, Sep 19, 2026 · Unranked at No. 14

Penn State 55, Buffalo 13Penn State was favored by 39.5, and Penn State covered.

Buffalo at Penn State: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameBuffalo1 gamePenn State1 game
Points−7.8+27.7
Points allowed+28.9−8.8
Total offense, yards−153+188
Total defense, yards+199−171
Touchdowns−1.3+4.0
Passer rating−61.8+30.0
Third downs−28.0%−20.0%
Sacks−0.8−1.5
Penalty yards−25.0+37.4
Turnovers forced−1.2+0.8
Turnovers lost+0.7−1.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Penn State

Buffalo

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Penn State

  • Penn State had beaten 6 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 7.
  • Penn State had won 6 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 7.

The series

  • Penn State leads the series 4–1 since 1900. Penn State has won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Penn State had won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • At home, Penn State’s carries were 10.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.8 over expected.
  • Buffalo had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Sep 19, 2026at Penn StatePenn State 55, Buffalo 13
Sep 7, 2019at Penn StatePenn State 45, Buffalo 13
Sep 12, 2015at Penn StatePenn State 27, Buffalo 14
Sep 15, 2007at Penn StatePenn State 45, Buffalo 24
Nov 29, 1900at BuffaloBuffalo 10, Penn State 0

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 18, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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