Putting Up Numbers· college football

New Mexico State @ Hawaii

Sat, Sep 12, 2026

Hawaii 29, New Mexico State 19Hawaii was favored by 7.5, and Hawaii covered.

New Mexico State at Hawaii: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameNew Mexico State1 gameHawaii1 game
Points−5.70.0
Points allowed+6.5−0.6
Total offense, yards+39+45
Total defense, yards+51+69
Touchdowns−0.9−0.1
Passer rating−18.7+12.0
Third downs+3.0%−8.0%
Sacks−1.3−1.0
Penalty yards−19.2−21.9
Turnovers forced−0.2+1.8
Turnovers lost+1.8−0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Hawaii

New Mexico State

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Hawaii

  • Hawaii’s points allowed were 12.8 lower at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 136th of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 1.2 under expected.

The series

  • Hawaii leads the series 12–1 since 1978. Hawaii has won the last 2. Hawaii has won 8 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Hawaii had covered 9 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 10 of 11.
  • Hawaii had won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • At home, Hawaii’s points were 20.8 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.5 over expected.
  • New Mexico State had covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • New Mexico State had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Sep 12, 2026at HawaiiHawaii 29, New Mexico State 19
Sep 23, 2023at HawaiiHawaii 20, New Mexico State 17
Sep 24, 2022at New Mexico StateNew Mexico State 45, Hawaii 26
Oct 23, 2021at HawaiiHawaii 48, New Mexico State 34
Sep 25, 2021at New Mexico StateHawaii 41, New Mexico State 21
Oct 22, 2011at HawaiiHawaii 45, New Mexico State 34
Nov 27, 2010at New Mexico StateHawaii 59, New Mexico State 24
Nov 14, 2009at HawaiiHawaii 24, New Mexico State 6
Nov 8, 2008at New Mexico StateHawaii 42, New Mexico State 30
Oct 27, 2007at HawaiiHawaii 50, New Mexico State 13

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 11, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.