Putting Up Numbers· college football

Mississippi State @ Minnesota

Sat, Sep 12, 2026

Mississippi State 38, Minnesota 13Mississippi State was favored by 0.5, and Mississippi State covered.

Mississippi State at Minnesota: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameMississippi State1 gameMinnesota1 game
Points+18.2−19.7
Points allowed−14.2+16.3
Total offense, yards+156−108
Total defense, yards−47+113
Touchdowns+2.7−3.4
Passer rating+80.9−37.7
Third downs+27.3%−11.3%
Sacks+0.4−2.0
Penalty yards+6.1+56.9
Turnovers forced−1.2−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.4−1.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Minnesota

Mississippi State

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Minnesota

  • Minnesota had covered 4 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • Minnesota had won 8 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.

The series

If you squint

  • Minnesota had beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Mississippi State had lost 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Mississippi State had covered 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 8 of 11.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Sep 12, 2026at MinnesotaMississippi State 38, Minnesota 13

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 11, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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