Putting Up Numbers· college football

Duke @ Illinois

Sat, Sep 12, 2026

Duke 31, Illinois 27Illinois was favored by 6, and Duke covered.

Duke at Illinois: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameDuke1 gameIllinois1 game
Points+7.6+6.4
Points allowed−1.6+4.8
Total offense, yards+11+40
Total defense, yards−12−2
Touchdowns+1.2+0.6
Passer rating+53.7+24.2
Third downs−19.7%+6.4%
Sacks−1.5−0.2
Penalty yards+57.1+9.1
Turnovers forced−0.2−1.2
Turnovers lost−1.2−0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Illinois

Duke

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Illinois

  • Illinois had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.

Duke

  • Duke had won 5 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
  • Duke had beaten 4 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.

The series

If you squint

  • Illinois had beaten 8 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Illinois had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Sep 12, 2026at IllinoisDuke 31, Illinois 27
Sep 6, 2025at DukeIllinois 45, Duke 19
Oct 23, 1965at IllinoisIllinois 28, Duke 14
Oct 4, 1958at DukeDuke 15, Illinois 13

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 11, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

Read next