Stars @ Capitals

Tue, Nov 3, 2026

Stars 6, Capitals 5

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

The Capitals' penalty minutes were 3.7 lower at home than away against expected over their last 165 games, 32nd of 32 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 7.5 under expected.

The Stars lead the series 61–35–16 since 1974-75. The Stars have won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →

The Capitals had won 7 of their last 10 at home.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
Against a team over .500, the Capitals' goal differential was 3.96 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.05 under expected.
Against a team over .500, the Stars' goal differential was 3.72 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.05 over expected.
On the road, the Stars' goals against were 1.91 under expected in 5 games. 5 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.90 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Nov 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Goals are the final score’s: a shootout gives its winner one goal, as the standings count it. Shots are shots on goal, and power-play goals allowed are the opponent’s.
A game with no box score sits out.