Putting Up Numbers· NHL

Maple Leafs @ Flames

Mon, Oct 26, 2026

Flames 5, Maple Leafs 2

Maple Leafs at Flames: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameMaple Leafs1 gameFlames1 game
Goals−1.23+1.78
Goals against+2.01−1.30
Shots−0.4+4.8
Shots against+5.9+0.7
Power-play goals−0.65+0.37
Power-play goals allowed+0.28−0.76
Penalty minutes+7.6+1.6

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Flames

Maple Leafs

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Maple Leafs

  • The Maple Leafs had won 4 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.

The series

If you squint

  • At home, the Flames' shots against were 3.5 over expected in 6 games. 6 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.9 under expected.
  • On the road, the Maple Leafs' goals were 2.01 over expected in 5 games. 5 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.25 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 26, 2026at FlamesFlames 5, Maple Leafs 2
Feb 2, 2026at FlamesMaple Leafs 4, Flames 2
Oct 28, 2025at Maple LeafsMaple Leafs 4, Flames 3
Mar 17, 2025at Maple LeafsMaple Leafs 6, Flames 2
Feb 4, 2025at FlamesMaple Leafs 6, Flames 3
Jan 18, 2024at FlamesMaple Leafs 4, Flames 3
Nov 10, 2023at Maple LeafsMaple Leafs 5, Flames 4
Mar 2, 2023at FlamesMaple Leafs 2, Flames 1
Dec 10, 2022at Maple LeafsMaple Leafs 5, Flames 4
Feb 10, 2022at FlamesFlames 5, Maple Leafs 2

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 25, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Goals are the final score’s: a shootout gives its winner one goal, as the standings count it. Shots are shots on goal, and power-play goals allowed are the opponent’s.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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