Putting Up Numbers· NHL

Canadiens @ Maple Leafs

Sat, Nov 7

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Canadiens at Maple Leafs: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameCanadiens15 gamesMaple Leafs17 games
+0.25+0.44
−0.02+0.09
−0.3+0.6
+1.5+3.0
−0.31+0.16
+0.04−0.32
+1.7+0.5

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the five biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Canadiens

  • The Canadiens have won 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →

The series

  • The Canadiens lead the series 417–350–88 since 1917-18. The Canadiens have won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Against a team over .500, the Maple Leafs' shots against are 3.2 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • Against a division opponent, the Maple Leafs' goal differential is 1.20 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • At home, the Maple Leafs' penalty minutes are 2.9 under expected in 9 games. 9 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • The Canadiens have won 7 of their last 10.countits form →
  • Against a team over .500, the Canadiens' shots against are 8.8 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • Against a division opponent, the Canadiens' goals against are 1.22 under expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • On the road, the Canadiens' power-play goals are 0.44 under expected in 7 games. 7 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Sep 29, 2026at Maple LeafsCanadiens 3, Maple Leafs 2
Mar 10, 2026at CanadiensCanadiens 3, Maple Leafs 1
Dec 6, 2025at Maple LeafsCanadiens 2, Maple Leafs 1
Nov 22, 2025at CanadiensCanadiens 5, Maple Leafs 2
Oct 8, 2025at Maple LeafsMaple Leafs 5, Canadiens 2
Apr 12, 2025at Maple LeafsMaple Leafs 1, Canadiens 0
Jan 18, 2025at CanadiensMaple Leafs 7, Canadiens 3
Nov 9, 2024at Maple LeafsMaple Leafs 4, Canadiens 1
Oct 9, 2024at CanadiensCanadiens 1, Maple Leafs 0
Apr 6, 2024at CanadiensMaple Leafs 4, Canadiens 2

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • Goals are the final score’s: a shootout gives its winner one goal, as the standings count it. Shots are shots on goal, and power-play goals allowed are the opponent’s.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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